![]() ![]() Nearly all the attention is on Florida right now, but other states are in danger too, and should be watching the storm.#GOES16 captured this imagery of #Irma from landfall yesterday up until mid-morning 9/11. Along with those stronger winds might come stronger storm surge. Such a track might spare Miami from the worst case scenario, but it would mean stronger winds into Georgia and South Carolina. If the storm strays slightly to the east of Miami, it’s possible that Irma’s eye would stay over the ocean before making a landfall in coastal Georgia or southeast South Carolina. As I said earlier this week, the National Hurricane Center’s forecast error cone is based on real uncertainty, not out of an abundance of caution. (Hurricane winds are generally strongest on the east side of the storm.) Of course, people should prepare for the worst possible scenario, which in this case is also the most likely one.Īdditionally, it’s not clear where the storm will go after southern Florida. But if the hurricane tracks to Miami’s east instead, it could mean the city riding out Category 1 winds (greater than 74 mph) rather than Category 3 winds (greater than 110 mph). Right now, Irma’s center is most likely to pass west of Miami. That may not seem like a lot, but that’s greater than the distance between Everglades City on the west coast of Florida and Miami on the east coast. Even 48 hours before a storm is supposed to hit a given area, the average National Hurricane Center forecast has been off by an average of more than 80 miles this decade. It’s worth noting, however, that it’s still possible for Irma to veer off-course from the National Hurricane Center’s most likely track. ![]() Such a track could lead to 6 inches or more of rainfall up through Florida and all the way to South Carolina. Irma is forecasted to still be a tropical storm with 45 mph winds when it reaches central Georgia on Tuesday. As you can see in the track above, the storm is expected to ride northward through Florida. Just concentrating on the Miami area, however, doesn’t do Irma justice. Rainfall will add additional problems with at least 10 to 15 inches expected in southeast Florida and the Florida Keys. (See Hurricane Sandy as an example of the dangers of storm surge.) Indeed, a “life-threatening storm surge” warning has been issued for the Miami metro. And remember: Although the winds would be bad with Irma, most hurricane deaths occur because of storm surge. Andrew led to 44 deaths in Florida and over $40 billion in damages (in 2017 dollars). If this forecast is perfect, Irma would be the strongest hurricane to hit the Miami area since Category 5 Andrew devastated it in 1992. A hurricane warning is in effect for the entire Miami metropolitan area. National Hurricane Center forecast on Friday has Irma hitting to the west of Miami on Sunday as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph possible. And no matter where you are in Florida, it’s going to be bad. Irma’s expected track could still change. Rainfall from Miami to southeast Georgia is still expected to be 8 to 15 inches or more.Īnd remember, keep an eye on the forecast. But, in a little bit of a silver lining, sustained wind speeds may max out there at 70 mph - still strong, but lower than`the 125 mph forecasted earlier today. Miami, though, is still in a precarious position, with heavy rain and storm surge forecasted. Rainfall totals in those areas are now forecasted to be 8 to 15 inches or more with potentially up to 12 inches in the Tampa area and further north. Sustained winds are expected to max out at 115 mph (Category 3), 130 mph (Category 4) and 105 mph (Category 2) in Fort Myers, Naples and Sarasota respectively. Hurricane and storm surge warnings are now in effect for Fort Myers, Naples and Sarasota on the western coast. Key West is now expecting up to Category 4 force winds (as high as 140 mph). The new track is very bad news for the Florida Keys and western Florida. 8, 8:46 p.m.): The National Hurricane Center’s latest forecasted track for Hurricane Irma reflects model trends that suggest the storm will make landfall in Florida a little further west than expected this morning. ![]()
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